亿电竞

finance service
Focus on steady growth and promote reform
Time: 2019/5/14 10:21:53

Source: Chinese financiers Author: Li Guohui, our reporter Release date: 15:49, February 22, 2019

"The亿电竞平台re are changes in economic stability and worries in change", which is the亿电竞 judgment of the亿电竞 central economic work conference held at the亿电竞 end of 2018 on China亿电竞平台's economic situation.

Since 2018, the亿电竞 overall slowdown of global economic recovery momentum, the亿电竞 superposition of trade friction between China亿电竞平台 and the亿电竞 United States, as well as structural and cyclical factors such as the亿电竞 decline of domestic labor force population and strict financial and financial supervision, have led to a quarterly slowdown in domestic economic growth. GDP in the亿电竞 third quarter of 2018 dropped to 6.5% year-on-year, which is the亿电竞 lowest level since the亿电竞 first quarter of 2009.

"For some time to come, the亿电竞 external environment of China亿电竞平台's macroeconomic operation is still undergoing profound changes, the亿电竞 downward pressure on the亿电竞 economy will increase significantly, and the亿电竞 uncertainty will rise. The亿电竞平台refore, China亿电竞平台 needs to take timely targeted policy measures to maintain the亿电竞 economic operation in a reasonable range. This is the亿电竞 key point of stabilizing employment, ensuring people's livelihood and maintaining social stability. " Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that compared with last year, the亿电竞 weight of "stable growth" in the亿电竞 2018 central economic work conference has increased significantly, and has become the亿电竞 focus of the亿电竞 short-term policy agenda.


On May 25, 2018, a fixed wing UAV made in China亿电竞平台, which can be used in agriculture, forestry and large-scale water conservancy, was unveiled at the亿电竞 2018 World Manufacturing Conference.

Stabilizing aggregate demand

Reduce fees and taxes on a larger scale

In terms of foreign demand, the亿电竞 export growth in 2018 was better, but the亿电竞re was an obvious growth feature of "scrambling for exports" under stress. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, pointed out that on the亿电竞 one hand, it overdrawn the亿电竞 demand in 2019, on the亿电竞 othe亿电竞r hand, it raised the亿电竞 year-on-year base. Under the亿电竞 environment of rising protectionism, possible slowdown in US economic growth and policy uncertainty in some developed economies, the亿电竞 global economic recovery slows down and foreign demand weakens and pressure increases in 2019.

In order to hedge the亿电竞 negative drag of external demand on economic growth, domestic demand will expand accordingly in 2019, so as to achieve the亿电竞 goal of stabilizing aggregate demand. This is also the亿电竞 reason why the亿电竞 meeting proposed that "macro policies should strengthe亿电竞n counter cyclical regulation". At the亿电竞 same time, the亿电竞 meeting also made specific arrangements for expanding domestic demand. Among the亿电竞m, the亿电竞 emphasis on the亿电竞 development of pension, education, medical care and tourism services not only conforms to the亿电竞 trend that China亿电竞平台's consumption is changing from goods to services, but also points out the亿电竞 weakness of the亿电竞 supply side of the亿电竞 current service industry. Wang Qing believes that in order to expand domestic consumption capacity, the亿电竞 current tax reduction and fee reduction is not a short-term "expedient measure", and may become a part of the亿电竞 major income distribution reform and continue to promote.

It is expected that the亿电竞re will be a large-scale tax cut of 1.5 trillion yuan for the亿电竞 tax reduction of individual income tax from 1.0 trillion yuan to 1.5 trillion yuan in the亿电竞 tax reduction for individual income tax in 2019. On the亿电竞 one hand, it can reduce costs, stimulate the亿电竞 vitality of micro enterprises, and more importantly, it can directly stimulate private investment and public consumption. In terms of increasing expenditure, the亿电竞 meeting proposed to "significantly increase the亿电竞 scale of local government special bonds" in 2019. Wang Qing judged that the亿电竞 new special debt in 2019 will reach about 2 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.65 trillion yuan over the亿电竞 previous year, and the亿电竞 fiscal deficit rate will also be raised from 2.6% of the亿电竞 previous year to 3.0%. This means that the亿电竞 sharp decline in infrastructure investment growth rate in 2018 will appear a "V" shaped reversal in 2019, which is expected to reach 10% or even higher, and rebound by more than 6% compared with that in 2018.

Steady monetary policy to maintain moderate tightness

In terms of monetary policy, the亿电竞 central economic work conference pointed out that "a stable monetary policy should be moderately tight, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, improve the亿电竞 transmission mechanism of monetary policy, increase the亿电竞 proportion of direct financing, and solve the亿电竞 problem of financing difficulties and high financing of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises."

This statement basically continues the亿电竞 tone of monetary policy in recent years. Lian Ping believes that this means that monetary policy will remain stable and loose in 2019, liquidity is more reasonable and moderate, directional regulation and precise drip irrigation are still the亿电竞 main features of monetary policy operation, and will continue to increase support for private enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises and othe亿电竞r weak areas. At the亿电竞 same time, monetary policy regulation and control will also focus on enhancing flexibility and foresight, and will make timely adjustments according to changes in economic situation.

It is worth noting that the亿电竞 meeting proposed that "prudent monetary policy should be moderately tight" and the亿电竞 word "neutral" in the亿电竞 previous year was removed. Wang Qing believes that this shows that monetary policy will continue to be slightly loose in the亿电竞 future. Among the亿电竞m, the亿电竞 capital will continue to be abundant, improve the亿电竞 transmission mechanism of monetary policy, mobilize the亿电竞 banking financial institutions to increase the亿电竞 on balance sheet credit to the亿电竞 real economy, and hedge the亿电竞 cyclical contraction effect. In addition, the亿电竞re will be a process from "breaking down" to "establishing" in financial strict supervision in 2019, that is, from strictly limiting off balance sheet financing and non-standard assets to orderly guiding shadow banking funds to private enterprises, small and micro enterprises with "water shortage" and some infrastructure projects to supplement the亿电竞 weak points.

Prevention and control of financial risks is still the亿电竞 top priority

In the亿电竞 middle of 2019, the亿电竞 most important task is to prevent and control major risks. The亿电竞平台 meeting pointed out that "we should adhere to the亿电竞 basic idea of structural deleveraging, guard against abnormal fluctuations and resonance in the亿电竞 financial market, handle the亿电竞 debt risk of local governments in a stable, controllable, orderly and moderate manner."

"It can be seen that structural deleveraging is still the亿电竞 main idea of deleveraging in 2019, with the亿电竞 focus on dealing with the亿电竞 debt risk of local governments." Lian Ping pointed out that in view of the亿电竞 fact that the亿电竞 hidden debt risks of local governments are not small, it is expected that the亿电竞 supervision and rectification efforts will be strengthe亿电竞ned in 2019; the亿电竞 emphasis on "controllable, orderly and moderate" is to avoid the亿电竞 occurrence of "risk of disposal risk". At the亿电竞 same time, in view of the亿电竞 complex economic and financial situation at home and abroad in 2019, the亿电竞 financial markets including the亿电竞 stock market, bond market and foreign exchange market will still have the亿电竞 possibility of large fluctuations. The亿电竞平台 risk of volatility resonance in various markets should not be underestimated and should be closely monitored and properly handled.

Adhere to supply side structural reform

The亿电竞平台 meeting stressed that "the亿电竞 main contradiction in China亿电竞平台's economic operation is still supply side structural, and we must adhere to the亿电竞 supply side structural reform as the亿电竞 main line.". We should speed up the亿电竞 reform of the亿电竞 relevant economic system. The亿电竞平台 focus of the亿电竞 reform of state-owned enterprises is to promote the亿电竞 separation of government and enterprise, separation of government and capital, and fair competition, reorganize and set up a number of state-owned capital investment companies, set up a number of state-owned capital operation companies, and actively promote the亿电竞 reform of mixed ownership.

"Fiscal and tax reform is closely linked with the亿电竞 transformation of government functions. In 2019, the亿电竞 local tax system will be improved and the亿电竞 government's debt financing mechanism will be standardized. At the亿电竞 level of opening to the亿电竞 outside world, the亿电竞 meeting proposed to promote all-round opening up. The亿电竞平台 focus of the亿电竞 reform is to relax market access, fully implement the亿电竞 pre access national treatment plus negative list management system, and strengthe亿电竞n the亿电竞 protection of intellectual property rights. In the亿电竞 past, the亿电竞 opening-up was mainly based on the亿电竞 flow of commodities and factors. In the亿电竞 future, it is necessary to change to the亿电竞 rule-based opening-up, reduce the亿电竞 system cost and promote the亿电竞 diversified development of the亿电竞 market. " Lian Ping said.

Wang Qing believes that "focusing on enhancing the亿电竞 vitality of micro entities", economic system reform is expected to make more breakthroughs. At present, the亿电竞 specific reforms that can be determined include: the亿电竞 establishment of the亿电竞 science and technology innovation board in Shanghai Stock Exchange and the亿电竞 pilot registration system; the亿电竞 full implementation of the亿电竞 pre admittance national treatment plus negative list management system, and the亿电竞 sole proprietorship of foreign investment in more fields; the亿电竞 "mixed reform" of state-owned enterprises is expected to fall, and the亿电竞 pace of disposal of zombie enterprises will be significantly accelerated. In addition, household registration system reform, rural land system reform, capital market reform, financial system reform, etc. are required to "go deep and solid".

Lian Ping also believed that the亿电竞 financial system should also promote the亿电竞 supply side reform, and the亿电竞 adjustment and optimization of the亿电竞 financial system structure is the亿电竞 key point. The亿电竞平台 meeting pointed out that we should focus on the亿电竞 structural adjustment and optimization of the亿电竞 financial system, deepen the亿电竞 reform of the亿电竞 financial system, develop private banks and community banks, and gradually return the亿电竞 business of urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives. We should improve the亿电竞 financial infrastructure and strengthe亿电竞n the亿电竞 ability of supervision and service. "This is actually equivalent to the亿电竞 supply side reform of the亿电竞 financial system, that is, to focus on adjusting and optimizing the亿电竞 structure of the亿电竞 financial system. On the亿电竞 one hand, it is necessary to continue to promote the亿电竞 return of financial institutions, especially small financial institutions, to better serve the亿电竞 real economy; on the亿电竞 othe亿电竞r hand, we should continue to encourage the亿电竞 development of private banks and community banks, and furthe亿电竞r increase the亿电竞 main body of financial institutions to enhance the亿电竞 comprehensive service of the亿电竞 financial system to entities Economic capacity, especially to enhance the亿电竞 service ability for long tail customers such as small and micro enterprises. " Lian Ping said.

 
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