亿电竞

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Financial support for the亿电竞 real economy continued to increase
Time: 2019/7/15 15:28:11

Source: Financial Times - China亿电竞平台 Financial News Network Reporter: Zhang Mo Dong Release date: July 15, 2019 07:30

According to the亿电竞 financial data released by the亿电竞 people's Bank of China亿电竞平台 in the亿电竞 first half of June, the亿电竞 growth rate of broad money (M2) was flat last month, and the亿电竞 growth rate of narrow money (M1) continued to rise.

At the亿电竞 end of June, the亿电竞 balance of M2 was 192.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, and the亿电竞 growth rate was the亿电竞 same as that at the亿电竞 end of last year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the亿电竞 same period of last year; the亿电竞 balance of M1 was 56.77 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, 1 percentage point higher than the亿电竞 end of last year and 2.2 percentage points lower than that of the亿电竞 same period of last year.

Ruan Jianhong, director of the亿电竞 investigation and Statistics Department of the亿电竞 people's Bank of China亿电竞平台, said at a press conference on financial statistics in the亿电竞 first half of the亿电竞 year that since 2019, the亿电竞 people's Bank of China亿电竞平台 has adhered to the亿电竞 prudent monetary policy, implemented the亿电竞 counter cyclical adjustment of macro policy in a timely and appropriate manner, maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, made good pre adjustment and fine adjustment, increased financial support for the亿电竞 real economy, especially private economy and small and micro enterprises, and adhered to the亿电竞 structure The亿电竞平台 focus of financial risk prevention and control is to prevent and control high-quality risks. On the亿电竞 whole, the亿电竞 current banking system has reasonable and sufficient liquidity, moderate growth in the亿电竞 scale of monetary credit and social financing, and stable market interest rate operation.

Among the亿电竞m, it is worth noting that the亿电竞 growth rate of M1 balance at the亿电竞 end of June was up on a month on month basis and down on a year-on-year basis. In this regard, the亿电竞 chief fixed income analyst of CITIC Securities Research Department clearly believes that the亿电竞 growth rate of M1 balance has increased month on month, which confirms the亿电竞 view that the亿电竞 overall economic activity in June has improved, but the亿电竞 growth rate of M1 balance is worth noting on a year-on-year basis, which may indicate the亿电竞 weakness of short-term activities of enterprises. In the亿电竞 future, we should continue to observe to determine the亿电竞 bottom range of M1 growth rate.

Anchoring the亿电竞 development of real economy

"The亿电竞平台 growth of M2 is the亿电竞 embodiment of the亿电竞 stable monetary policy of the亿电竞 people's Bank of China亿电竞平台." In interpreting the亿电竞 data, Ruan Jianhong said that behind this, first, the亿电竞 overall growth rate of bank loans was relatively fast; second, the亿电竞 growth rate of bank bond investment was fast; third, the亿电竞 decline rate of the亿电竞 scale of financing funds provided by commercial banks to non bank financial institutions in the亿电竞 form of equity investment narrowed by 5.6 percentage points to 6.8% compared with the亿电竞 low point of this round of decline, which means that the亿电竞 off balance sheet funds of banks have decreased significantly The亿电竞平台 bank's ability to derive funds has been enhanced. "At present, the亿电竞 liquidity of the亿电竞 banking system is reasonable and abundant. At the亿电竞 end of June, the亿电竞 excess reserve rate of financial institutions was 2%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the亿电竞 same period of last year. The亿电竞平台 interbank offered rate was relatively low, averaging 1.7% in June, 1.03 percentage points lower than that in the亿电竞 same period of last year. Financial institutions have a strong ability to derive money, and the亿电竞 money multiplier is 6.14, which is also a relatively high level in history. " She stressed.

In addition to the亿电竞 economic structure optimization of M2 and othe亿电竞r entities, it also shows the亿电竞 improvement of credit structure. For example, in the亿电竞 first half of the亿电竞 year, RMB loans to the亿电竞 real economy increased by 10.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.26 trillion yuan year-on-year; foreign currency loans to the亿电竞 real economy increased by 9.7 billion yuan, an increase of 22.2 billion yuan year-on-year.

Compared with the亿电竞 same month, the亿电竞 loan increased by RMB 1.78 trillion. In this regard, Li Chao, chief macro researcher of Huatai Securities, said that this may be caused by the亿电竞 downward trend of credit and bill financing to non bank institutions. E Yongjian, chief financial analyst of the亿电竞 financial research center of Bank of communications, believes that the亿电竞 new loans in June were slightly lower than expected, and the亿电竞 increase was also less than that of the亿电竞 same period last year, but the亿电竞 medium and long-term loans of new enterprises increased more month on month, indicating that the亿电竞 credit structure has improved. In addition, the亿电竞 scale of new social financing increased year-on-year. Due to the亿电竞 small increase of credit and the亿电竞 increase of social finance, the亿电竞 main reason is that the亿电竞 local debt financing increased more year on year and the亿电竞 trust loan recovered. Overall, the亿电竞 financial support for the亿电竞 real economy is still strong.

Reasonable and sufficient liquidity

At a press conference on financial statistics in the亿电竞 first half of the亿电竞 year, sun Guofeng, director of the亿电竞 Department of Goods Administration of the亿电竞 people's Bank of China亿电竞平台, said that since June, the亿电竞 people's Bank of China亿电竞平台 has comprehensively used a variety of monetary policy tools such as open market operation and medium-term lending facilities to appropriately and timely release liquidity, thus maintaining the亿电竞 reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the亿电竞 banking system. In particular, it increased the亿电竞 fund supply across the亿电竞 end of half a year and maintained the亿电竞 stable operation of the亿电竞 interest rate in the亿电竞 money market in a reasonable range. In June, the亿电竞 average value of dr007 (inter-bank 7-day pledge repo rate) was 2.41% and the亿电竞 month end value was 2.56%. The亿电竞平台 month end value was 7 basis points lower than the亿电竞 end of May and 45 basis points lower than the亿电竞 same period last year. The亿电竞平台 market passed the亿电竞 end of half a year smoothly.

"After the亿电竞 beginning of July, the亿电竞 demand for interest rate will decrease more obviously at the亿电竞 beginning of July." Sun Guofeng furthe亿电竞r analyzed that at the亿电竞 end of June, banks would hold some preventive liquidity demand. By the亿电竞 beginning of July, this demand would be reduced, and the亿电竞 reduction of preventive demand would make the亿电竞 interest rate level drop. It is normal for banks to have a certain short-term decline. In addition, he stressed: "with the亿电竞 increase of liquidity factors such as fiscal revenue, government bonds, reserve contribution and maturity of central bank reverse repurchase, the亿电竞 total liquidity of the亿电竞 banking system has returned to a reasonable equilibrium level. At the亿电竞 same time, dr001 (overnight pledge repo rate) and dr007 have rebounded, indicating that the亿电竞 short-term fluctuation of interest rate level does not represent the亿电竞 medium and long-term trend, and the亿电竞 trend and average value should be taken into account to observe the亿电竞 change of market interest rate level. "

As for the亿电竞 liquidity of non banking institutions which are of great concern to the亿电竞 outside world, sun Guofeng said that the亿电竞 market usually uses two important indicators to measure. One is the亿电竞 interest rate spread between R and Dr, which to some extent reflects the亿电竞 difference in financing costs between non bank financial institutions and banks. In June, the亿电竞 spread between R001 and dr001 remained at a low level of about 5-6 basis points; the亿电竞 othe亿电竞r is GC, which is the亿电竞 debt of the亿电竞 exchange The亿电竞平台 bond repurchase rate, gc001, was 3.36% at the亿电竞 end of June, about 400 basis points lower than the亿电竞 same period last year. The亿电竞平台 above two important indicators reflect that the亿电竞 liquidity situation of non bank financial institutions was generally stable in June.

On this issue, Zhou Xuedong, director of the亿电竞 general office of the亿电竞 people's Bank of China亿电竞平台, added that the亿电竞 impact of the亿电竞 outsourcing bank incident on the亿电竞 market, which was very much concerned by the亿电竞 outside, has been eliminated to a large extent, and the亿电竞 market liquidity has now returned to a reasonable level.

Monetary policy adheres to the亿电竞 principle of "giving priority to myself"

Recently, more than a dozen central banks around the亿电竞 world announced interest rate cuts, and the亿电竞 expectation of the亿电竞 Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is becoming stronger and stronger. A report by Nomura Securities shows that the亿电竞 world's major industrial economies increasingly need central banks to cut interest rates to stimulate the亿电竞ir economies as economic growth slows and recession intensifies.

In this context, what measures will the亿电竞 Central Bank of China亿电竞平台 take?

In response to the亿电竞 above news conference, sun Guofeng said that measuring China亿电竞平台's overall interest rate depends on two important interest rates, one is the亿电竞 market interest rate level and the亿电竞 othe亿电竞r is the亿电竞 real loan interest rate, which have been declining since last year. Specifically, at the亿电竞 end of June, the亿电竞 representative money market interest rate dr007 was 2.56%, a year-on-year decrease of 45 basis points; the亿电竞 yield of 10-year Treasury bonds was 3.23%, a year-on-year decrease of 25 basis points. In addition, in May, the亿电竞 interest rate on corporate loans was 5.34%, down 17 basis points from a year earlier.

Sun Guofeng said that in the亿电竞 next stage, the亿电竞 people's Bank of China亿电竞平台 will continue to implement a stable monetary policy, closely monitor the亿电竞 changes in the亿电竞 economic and financial situation at home and abroad. On the亿电竞 premise of balancing the亿电竞 internal and external balance, the亿电竞 people's Bank of China亿电竞平台 should adhere to the亿电竞 principle of "giving priority to ourselves", focusing on timely pre adjustment and fine adjustment according to China亿电竞平台's economic growth and changes in price situation, and comprehensively utilize a variety of monetary policy combination tools, At the亿电竞 same time, we should promote measures such as deepening the亿电竞 reform of interest rate marketization, dredge the亿电竞 transmission of monetary policy to loan interest rate, and promote the亿电竞 reduction of the亿电竞 actual interest rate of enterprise financing.

Interest rate marketization reform is the亿电竞 key

"The亿电竞平台 reform of interest rate marketization in China亿电竞平台 still has the亿电竞 problem of" double track "of interest rate, among which the亿电竞 focus of reform is the亿电竞" double track "of loan interest rate At the亿电竞 above press conference, sun Guofeng said that the亿电竞 next step is to promote the亿电竞 furthe亿电竞r marketization of loan interest rates. The亿电竞平台 loan market quotation rate (LPR) is more market-oriented, which can better reflect the亿电竞 supply and demand of market funds. Promoting banks to make more use of LPR is conducive to unblocking the亿电竞 transmission of monetary policy to market interest rate and reducing real interest rate.

As a matter of fact, the亿电竞 central bank's 2019 working conference clearly proposed to steadily promote the亿电竞 "two track integration" of interest rates and improve the亿电竞 market-oriented interest rate formation, regulation and transmission mechanism. The亿电竞平台 executive meeting of the亿电竞 State Council held on June 26 also made it clear that the亿电竞 next step is to deepen the亿电竞 reform of interest rate marketization, improve the亿电竞 mechanism of quoted interest rate in the亿电竞 loan market of commercial banks, and give better play to the亿电竞 guiding role of quoted interest rate in the亿电竞 formation of actual interest rate.

Financial Times reporters observed that the亿电竞 current market interest rate has been at a low level. At the亿电竞 end of June and early July, dr001 once had a historical minimum. Under this background, it is difficult to integrate the亿电竞 market interest rate and loan interest rate. Previously, the亿电竞 central bank first mentioned the亿电竞 path of interest rate integration in the亿电竞 "first quarter of 2019 monetary policy implementation report" issued on May 17, which made it clear that interest rate integration or will start from loan interest rate, and stressed the亿电竞 importance of LPR.

 
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